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排位 影響賽果有多大

排位 影響賽果有多大

Recently, I discovered the draw in any races in Shatin and Happy Valley may affect the chance to win. Statistics elsewhere disclosed that for every 1M apart, a horse will run
1.8M more in 1000M race, 3M in1200M -1400M races and 5.8M in 1800 race. For example,
1200M race, the draw of a horse is changed from 1st to 11th, it may run 10x5.8M distance
more i.e.191.4 ft. Assuming the length of a average horse is 6', it means that it will lose
31.9 horse lengths, meaning around 5.4 second slower. But it is not realistic and I think
the assumption is  based on a horse all along running his lane of 11th draw, like an
athlete competing his 100M race. He has to keep his lane all the way.

Hence, the above finding is not ideal and misleading. Take an example of the last race last night, 國中之星beats down 陽明寶寶 is due to her better draw from his last draw 11th to 3rd whereas陽明寶寶 only benefits from his last draw  4th to 1st. Of course my system tells me that without taking into account the condition of the draw, I rate and estimate 陽明寶寶 coming first and 國中之星 coming thrid. Now,國中之星 wins.  The reason perhaps, among
others is due to her much better draw. She benefits from 8 horse gates and 陽明寶寶  only
benefits from 3 horse gates.

Are there any brothers have done any research on this area?  Please comment.

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抽到一個好檔,當然嬴馬機會會提高,但何謂好檔呢?

基於香港直路跑道比外國普遍較短,快活谷尤甚,所以一般前領馬,跟前馬喺
香港賽事上較為漸優,因為後追馬通上後追不及,所以普遍以抽內檔,尤期一檔
會稱黃金一檔,會較抽外檔更為着數, 因為香港以前領馬既數目較多. 數據上所
以會內檔有絕對優勢.

但係咪內檔一定好呢?

咁就要睇跑法嗱, 以昨晚谷戰第二場 得運寶 為例, 九歲老馬共出賽63次,共
6 WIN 16 次 上名, 嬴馬檔為 7, 7, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14,

係咪 得運寶 黑仔成日抽外檔呢?

63 次出賽表面 32 次 6 檔以內, 共上名 4 次
31 次抽 6 檔以外, 共上名 11 次

呢隻後生放頭, 老左放唔出改為後追既老馬, 正係典形於內欄跑,有Cover反而
跑唔出正常表現既馬,所以外檔反而有利.

所以檔位既因素好重要,不過係以每隻馬去計.

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佩服高見

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檔位對於前中置馬來說是非常重要的,谷草特別重要,但對於一些後置馬檔位則並不重要,最重要是有快步速幫助,超班馬基本上任何檔位都不怕,像精彩生輝之類的馬,應該是二班貨色,在三班負輕磅任何檔位都可贏得,應變計劃,孫子奇兵.手上有10分以上的馬不怕外檔,還有一此是久休跑新鮮的馬不怕外檔,因久休畜足新鮮感可跑出起水準的表演,喜鵲。便是這類馬,對於一只評分見底中置馬,手上沒多少分的馬,則必定要內檔之助才可贏得。
專業賽馬投資顧問.對賽馬用長期統計數據.人性與馬性理性分析,跑馬離不開這二大原素,就是人性與馬性.願交對馬有興趣的朋友。微信13352961328

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高見, 感謝

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谷草五班欄位是一個重要因素,特別是在短途賽事
附件: 您所在的用戶組無法下載或查看附件
輸打贏要,莫進賭門,富貴發財,請往他處.願賭服輸,僅可進門,二餐溫飽,絕不保證..

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thank you

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能贏外檔的馬手上必有十分八分,這只答對一半,就以寶利多,耀目為例,上季贏完大外檔後,只加五分,再排回內檔也只得個第四名,所以講並非一定要超級馬,只是步速形勢配合一樣可贏得,寶利多,贏馬是留後跑剛遇上快步速頭二段46.5未段24.0時間,寶利多未段只要能造23.0便可在這場低水淮場合贏馬,可謂賺盡步速形勢下贏馬,並非超級馬,手上的評分也沒多少利,其後只加五分原班排任何檔都輸,耀目則排11檔但前速夠快,遇上極之緩慢的慢步速早段1.19.6.未段23.6.又夠運早段能切入內欄跑,可謂賺貼欄又賺慢步速兩利之下贏馬,該場的水淮屬極低賽事,步速形勢有時賽前是好難估計到的。假如寶利多留後跑遇上慢步速,耀目放頭跑遇上快步速形勢,則兩只馬都會一定輸.耀目可能會有位置,寶利多則一定三甲不入。所以跑馬最難是估計步速形勢,有時快馬唔多以為會慢步速呢,偏有一些平時前速不快的早段逛搶拉快步速,有時同場快馬多呢,偏不搶放按慢來跑,變馬慢步速賽事,我們評估步速也最多只能估到一半,好難做到賽前便知呢場是什麼步速,練馬師自已本人也最多估中一半左右。記得前季有只(世紀巨星)第當遇上有利的慢步速形勢便來偷襲,連超級馬旺國手也輸在其蹄下敗將
專業賽馬投資顧問.對賽馬用長期統計數據.人性與馬性理性分析,跑馬離不開這二大原素,就是人性與馬性.願交對馬有興趣的朋友。微信13352961328

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谢谢..........

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