發新話題
打印

下季馬找個賽前預計步速快慢的專家

Some people said that we can hit the target horse as high as 75% if we can predict
correctly the pace of a race. I have some experience in this field. My own system can tell
quite accurately the pace of  a coming race. The concept is that we have to sort out the past
best performance of the same distance done by all participating horses and study the pace they  did in that race. Capture the data of the pace of all horses in that race by section and compare it with the standard sectional time ( which you have to do it on your own by using
the HKJC Club's standard time as a yardstick.) If there are more than 4 horses  having the sectional speed faster than the standard by a few lines and competing in the first section (in the front), the pace of the coming race could  be most probably fast. If there are 3 horses or below having the sectional time faster than the standard , the coming race could be
slow.  Likewise, if there is no horse found, the coming race could be normal.

賽日密馬 © All rights reserved.

TOP

Sorry, I make a correction.  If there are 3 horses or below having the sectional faster than
the standard, the coming race could be good-to-fast (normal).  If there is no horse having
the sectional time faster than the standard, the coming race could be slow.

賽日密馬 © All rights reserved.

TOP

I can explain the situation why sometimes the golden rules cannot apply, ie. a springer
taking an advantage of a fast pace run and a stayer taking an advantage of a slow run.  The  reason is that sometimes, we have an anti-trend horse which is a springer and finally wins a fast run race. The good example is 特寶樂 which participated in the race 665 on 3/6/09. Though the run is fast and特寶樂 is a springer. In the race, all along she leads and wins the race. Though the last 400M speed is slow, 24.54 compared the best 400M speed 22.56 in Class 3 Happy Valley 1650M, she still gives the finishing time 1.40.1 only 10 lines below the fastest finishing time in Class 3 Happy Valley 1650M. So, the lesson is that 特寶樂 is a super horse because she shows an extraordinary strength that she can finish the race courageously in a poor situation. Though you may not be able to choose her in race 655 as a winner, you still learn a lesson that she is super and you should mark it down for future reference. One day, you will be awarded.  

Likewise, there is another kind of anti-trend horse which wins a race in a slow run race
whereas she is a stayer.  The good example is 勇猛神駒 which participated in race 628
on 21/5/09. The race is a slow run. However she wins the race with her last best speed
22.85 which is only 0.29 slower the best 400M speed in Class 3, Happy Valley, 1650M.
Though it is a slow run, her finishing time 1.40.6 is not bad, 10 lines above the standard
time 1.40.7.  The lesson we learn here is that  勇猛神駒  is also a super horse. You need
pay her your attention from time to time.

After all, horse racing is a fun.  It is full of unexpected results. On a average, our golden rule
is true 慢步速利放,快步速利追 because a horse is an animal which only has a full
speed for 400M.

賽日密馬 © All rights reserved.

TOP

Here is the extract from HKJC's Speed Power Forum. The article explains why a pace
of a race may affect the result.

以下是四種最常見的賽事步速形勢,請細心留意放頭馬在每一類賽事中扮演的重要角色。(我們要假設沒有出現跑道偏差,即是貼欄或走近內欄的馬匹,因為轉彎時能夠節省腳程而佔到些優勢)單騎領放馬。此類賽事之中只有一匹放頭馬,而這匹馬經常能夠勝出,因為牠能夠因應本身的特性而控制賽事的步速,其他馬匹只跟隨其後。由於領放馬跑到直路彎時仍未用盡氣力,即使其他馬匹在此時才開始發力,最後仍難以把牠超越。有些馬匹在賽事早段受到對手緊迫時會很快洩氣,但若能單騎領放,則可以馬王般的姿態一放到底。在這樣的賽事中,一旦放頭馬未能直領到底,通常就會由緊隨放頭馬競跑的前領型馬匹當中,擁有最佳速勢指數的一駒勝出。結論:假如放頭馬有上佳的速勢指數,牠就是最好的投注對象。即使牠的速勢指數欠佳,在投注連贏、三重彩時仍須加入考慮,而將主力放在速勢指數最高的前領型馬匹身上。將哪些居於中間偏後位置馬匹的機會降低,甚至把牠們剔除。中等步速賽事。此類賽事早段步速既不太快,也不太慢。列陣馬匹之中可能有兩、三匹有時會領放、但通常都是緊隨放頭馬競跑。此類賽事沒有正宗放頭馬,比較難以預測,因為各騎練均會評估賽事中可能出現的步速,並會因此而設法把握機會。舉例來說,有頭腦的騎師可能會先行搶放,繼而拖慢步速,令賽事變成單騎領放的形式,以圖「偷雞」。或者某位練馬師鑑於旗下戰馬排在外檔,賽前指示該駒騎師早段非慣常地催策上前,希望能夠切入內欄,因而導致早段步速比預期要快,使到該場賽事變成快步速賽事。結論:在步速屬於中等的賽事中,前領型馬匹仍略為有利,不過,任何跑法的馬匹只要具備突出的速勢指數,尤其是那些貼欄或靠近內欄競跑的馬匹,都有力跑入三甲或勝出。倘若騎練乘此機會嘗試特別的戰略,為求佔得優勢,則任何事情都可以發生。快步速賽事。此類賽事中有兩匹或以上的馬搶放,而且經常再加入幾匹前領型馬,在早段互相催迫施壓。結果通常是所有前領快放馬很快就筋疲力盡,在最後直路上被速勢指數最高的中置型或後上馬超越。偶然,其中一匹快放馬仍能入圍,而這通常是能夠穩守於其他快放馬內側貼欄競跑的一駒。結論:將放頭及前領型馬匹的機會大為降低,尤其是那些可能被迫走外疊的馬。大大提升那些在同程能夠發揮強勁衝刺的中置或後上馬之機會。慢步速賽事。此類賽事並無正宗放頭馬匹,而且只有少數或實力較弱的前領馬。由於欠缺前領馬,全部馬匹均會以比牠們的能力所及更慢的步速競跑,往往形成馬群密集、馬匹互相擠碰、前後緊貼的情況。賽事中發生干擾事件的可能性大增,留居馬群中游位置或尾列的馬匹在直路亦更難取位上前。結論:一如中等步速賽事,一場看似沒有步速的賽事可能被某些騎練視為偷襲良機,並可能產生同樣的結果。但一般情況下,在此類賽事,可以將速勢指數高、而又能夠跟在前列的馬匹之機會大大提高,尤其是那些排內檔,有利於貼欄走的馬;同時,大為降低那些留居於馬群後半截馬匹的機會。

賽日密馬 © All rights reserved.

TOP

擇自HorseFigure.com網頁

各位朋友,別看輕賽前步速分析評估,步速是主宰馬匹勝負的其中注要因素,有了賽前步速評估,我們便可以相應減少,其中一種對爭勝條件的未知數的影響,增加我們命中頭馬的機會它就是臨場步速。

賽日密馬 © All rights reserved.

TOP

贏馬人兄一針見血, 練馬師們一定知曉步速的重要性, 每一場賽事, 他們會預計當場賽事, 按馬匹
特性 (前領, 中速 ,后上), 檔位, 用最佳跑法去競賽

賽日密馬 © All rights reserved.

TOP

贏馬人兄曾發表以下偉論, 值得細讀:

段速這樣東西你只研究最後四百米是不能做淮的。要睇總時間。前置馬前段快步速跟前的馬未段仍不力弱能造23.5已算OK。假如是超快步速的話未段達24.0也可,這�奡N講一個1200谷草為例通常頭三段的步速在46.5就已算是快步速,未段能達23.5便算合格。前置馬能快跟未段有的追勁自締未段時間23.0則算是出色的段速。再出只要排到內檔便已可贏。但尾置馬要快步速之下追回一個位置,則此馬屬贈形勢賺步速才入位,再出通常都可不理,此類馬再出都是下風馬。大多數會輸。但頭馬則可淩架於一切。還要勝得輕松的馬最少要勝一馬位以上。田草1400為例。頭三段達58.5都是中等偏快的步速,叫中位數,假如比此步速還要快的馬跟前的馬,則是蝕步速的馬。但還要睇未段時間加起來一起評估,假如未段時間慢於23.5的話則最多一位,未段出色。能達23.2以下時間則算是出色段速。再出多數能贏。假如步速要57.5以下時間則算是超超快步速,跟前的馬未段達24.0但算是勁蝕步速未段仍勁的馬。後置馬同樣在此步速之下追回一個位置也算是出色。又前快後快計總時間出色已可。1400以上賺步速的後勁馬也可信。主要睇走貼欄還是外疊上來定此馬實力。段速差的馬當配搭加強,減磅,降班,都會有變數。計段速還要計當日場地要調整時間來計算。

賽日密馬 © All rights reserved.

TOP

發新話題