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標題: 今天賽事快慢步速檢討 [打印本頁]

作者: paulcheung88 時間: 1-7-2009 08:11 PM 標題: 今天賽事快慢步速檢討

Let me give you a review of my estimates of to-day's horse pace.

Race My Estimate       HKJC Estimate    Actual
1    Fast             Good-to-fast       36.22 for 1st section, 0.32 slower than standard,
                                             59.83 for 1st & 2nd, 0.13 slower than standard Result:
                                             Good-to-slow
2    Fast                Slow             47.24 for 1st section, 0.04 slower than standard,
                                             Result: Normal
3    Slow                Good-to-slow       48.47 for 1st section, 0.17 slower than standard, 72.36
                                             for 1st & 2nd section, 0.44 slower than standard,
                                             Result:Slow
4    Slow             Good-to-slow       36.14 for 1st section, 0.34 slower than standard, 59.38
                                             for 1st & 2nd Section, 0.22 slower than standard, Result:
                                             slow
5    Fast                Slow             36.19 for 1st section, 0.71 faster than standard, 60.36
                                             for 1st & 2nd section, 0.84 faster than standard,
                                             Result: fast
6    Good (Normal)    Good-to-slow       46.46 for 1st section, 0.24 faster than standard, Result
                                             Result: Good-to-fast
7    Fast             Good-to-fast       45.9 for 1st section, 0.8 faster than standard, Result:
                                             Fast
8    Fast             Good (Normal)       47.35 for 1st section, 0.45 faster than standard, 71.43
                                             for 1st & 2nd section, 0.97 faster than standard, Result:
                                             Fast
9    Slow             Slow                35.64 for 1st section, 0.04 slower than standard, 59.16
                                             for 1st & 2nd section, 0.44 slower than standard, Result:
                                             slow
10. Fast             Good (Normal)       48.11 for 1st section, 0.19 faster than standard, 0.48
                                             faster than standard, Result: Fast
11. Fast             Slow                48.08 for 1st section, 0.52 faster than standard, 0.19
                                             slower than standard, Result: Fast (at least 1st section)

From the above, again HKJC Speed Power estimated wrongly Race 1, 2, 3, 4,5,6,7,8,10,11, total 10 races.
I estimate correctly Race 3,4,5,7,8,9,10,11. Even for race 6, a minor mistake is made. I hit 75% estimates correctly.  Hence, my advice is that again, don't rely on the pace shown in HKJC Speed Power Column.

作者: 山埃博士 時間: 1-7-2009 10:56 PM

引用:

原帖由 paulcheung88 於 1-7-2009 08:11 PM 發表
Let me give you a review of my estimates of to-day's horse pace.

Race My Estimate HKJC Estimate Actual
1 Fast Good-to-fast 36.22 for 1st section, 0.32 ...

希望paulcheung88來季仍可提供快慢步速，最好有埋邊幾隻是前速快馬，謝過！

作者: paulcheung88 時間: 2-7-2009 02:16 PM

Doctor兄, my estimates wil enhance those brothers who know well the estimate best
performance and pace of each horse. As I said, only bet those horses which can
take advantage of a pace of the current race. Every brother should know that a horse, can only finish 400M by instinct with his maximum speed and she has to change her
breath befor she runs more. Therefore, a springer's and stayer's instinct manner of
running will be affected by a horse pace of a race. In a slow run race, a springer will
benefit. In a fast run race, a stayer will benefit. The rule is simple. But a lot of race-goers
don't know or don't want to know.

歡迎光臨賽日密馬 (http://www.hrc.hk/)