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標題: 明晚陽明寶寶 [打印本頁]

作者: paulcheung88 時間: 23-6-2009 12:17 PM 標題: 明晚陽明寶寶

陽明寶寶上仗谷草1650M全程1.39.56, 破上季2班1650M最快1.39.6,快步速75.5, 快2班標準分段時間13線, LAST400M做23.4, 不俗,前快后快,檔位比上仗更好,黃金1當,是場步速應正常, 有利跑法, 應再勝

作者: bbqdqq 時間: 23-6-2009 12:21 PM

好想飞左只陽明寶寶
不过好似飞悟起,睇睇再算

作者: 山埃博士 時間: 23-6-2009 12:29 PM

引用:

原帖由 paulcheung88 於 23-6-2009 12:17 PM 發表
陽明寶寶上仗谷草1650M全程1.39.56, 破上季2班1650M最快1.39.6,快步速75.5, 快2班標準分段時間13線, LAST400M做23.4, 不俗,前快后快,檔位比上仗更好,黃金1當,是場步速應正常, 有利跑法, 應再勝

第二班 - 1650米 - (100-080)
黃泥涌峽讓賽
HK$ 1,150,000.00
56k    寬頻

場地狀況 :  好至快
賽道 : 草地 - "C+3"
時間 :  (27.84) (50.95) (1.15.51) (1.39.56)
分段時間 :  27.84 23.11 24.56 24.05

名次馬號馬名騎師練馬師實際
負磅排位體重檔位頭馬
距離沿途
走位完成
時間獨贏
賠率
1  11 陽明寶寶(J338)  楊啟棠蔡約翰 113 1117 4 -  7 7 5 1
1.39.56 7.7
2  5 福喜(J061)  黎海榮何良 122 1064 2 1-3/4  5 3 3 2
1.39.81 4.3
3  7 國中之星(J226)  蔡明紹告東尼 116 1056 11 3 1 2 2 3
1.39.97 7.6
4  2 億銘之寶(G298)  賴維銘沈集成 124 1068 9 3-1/2  8 8 8 4
1.40.04 25
5  4 勇猛神駒(G178)  韋達黃汝安 124 1075 5 3-3/4  10 10 9 5
1.40.11 7.3
6  3 財到得勝(E254)  柏寶呂健威 126 1039 10 3-3/4  11 11 10 6
1.40.14 10
7  9 璐悅(H278)  王志偉葉楚航 118 1207 8 4 6 6 7 7
1.40.17 15
8  6 愛馬寶(J081)  普萊西方嘉柏 124 1214 6 4-3/4  4 5 4 8
1.40.32 3.1

作者: 山埃博士 時間: 23-6-2009 12:30 PM

個貼做埋圖示就完美！

作者: 山埃博士 時間: 23-6-2009 12:45 PM

財到得勝跑得番就有得鍊吓
福喜繼續進步鬥志鮮明可取

作者: pkmannn 時間: 23-6-2009 04:19 PM

引用:

原帖由 paulcheung88 於 23-6-2009 12:17 PM 發表
陽明寶寶上仗谷草1650M全程1.39.56, 破上季2班1650M最快1.39.6,快步速75.5, 快2班標準分段時間13線, LAST400M做23.4, 不俗,前快后快,檔位比上仗更好,黃金1當,是場步速應正常, 有利跑法, 應再勝

I also support this horse to have the second winners in HK tomorrow!

作者: 931022 時間: 23-6-2009 08:10 PM

作者: 贏馬人 時間: 23-6-2009 08:21 PM

陽明寶寶有對手，開心，銀太陽，白玉駿駒。會是最強對手。

作者: paulcheung88 時間: 23-6-2009 08:59 PM

I told you brothers before that I have my own horse selection. Let me demonstrate how I select my target horses in Race 8 tomorrow night.

Last Season Best Finishing Time Rank    Best Last 400M Time Rank Draw From-To
Horse No. 5          2                                              1                                              2-2
Horse No. 3          4                                           2                                              3-4
Current Season
Horse No. 6          1                                           4                                              4-1
Horse No. 8          3                                           8                                              11-3
Horse No. 5          5                                           3                                              10-2
Horse No. 11       6                                              6                                              1-12
Horse No.12          7                                           9                                              5-9
Horse No. 2          8                                           7                                              8-4

Hence, my 1st  choice is Horse No. 6 陽明寶寶. (Reason: the best finishing time and
the 3rd the strongest 400M finishing time. The draw is better from 4th to 1st. Jockey is
better.)  I did post it  earlier to explain why it can win again.

My second choice is Horse No. 8 (Reason: the 3rd fastest finishing time and
8th last 400M finishing time. The draw is better from 11th to 3rd.)  My third choice is Horse No.5 (Reason : the fifth fastest time (current season) and the 3rd last finishing time. The draw is better from from 10th to 2nd.) I estimate the run will be a fast run race.
Those late-finishers will be benefit from the pace. If brothers want to bet on Tierce/Trio
Horse No. 11, 12,  8 should be included. Let us be a winner all together! Cheers!

作者: 山埃博士 時間: 23-6-2009 11:13 PM

引用:

原帖由 paulcheung88 於 23-6-2009 08:59 PM 發表
I told you brothers before that I have my own horse selection. Let me demonstrate how I select my target horses in Race 8 tomorrow night.

Last Season Best Finishing Time Rank Best Last 400M ...

賽績時間段速檔綜合系統，好具體話比大家知點揀馬，
不論成績如何，已達到密馬主要宗旨：自建選馬系統！
加30分鼓勵！

作者: paulcheung88 時間: 23-6-2009 11:26 PM

Thanks a lot. The encouragement is better than winning money.

作者: 山埃博士 時間: 23-6-2009 11:32 PM

有讚必讚，有彈必彈，歡迎加入密馬大家庭，博士直覺Paul兄非一般睇料買馬，大家互相鞭策鞭策！

作者: paulcheung88 時間: 23-6-2009 11:56 PM

Tears and joy brings me to the present state. I am a race-goer for more than 30 years and get myself prepared for every method that I can make money on horse racing.

作者: dane 時間: 24-6-2009 11:43 AM

本帖隱藏的內容需要積分高於 20 才可瀏覽

[ 本帖最後由 dane 於 24-6-2009 11:47 AM 編輯 ]

作者: dane 時間: 24-6-2009 11:44 AM

本帖隱藏的內容需要積分高於 20 才可瀏覽

[ 本帖最後由 dane 於 24-6-2009 11:47 AM 編輯 ]

作者: dane 時間: 24-6-2009 11:45 AM

本帖隱藏的內容需要積分高於 20 才可瀏覽

[ 本帖最後由 dane 於 24-6-2009 11:47 AM 編輯 ]

作者: chaonima 時間: 24-6-2009 11:47 AM

賽日密馬的山埃博士你老母封我IP可以不去，你那网址一点价值都没有，还不如船长这个网站！

投注方法：
此斋W很少连着三场都不中一场的，投注方法相当简单，翻倍投注！

怎么投注就看你们自己了

小心参考！

第1場 11)我跑得
(1)超理想
第2場 7)聚豪精英
(5)神鑽福將
第3場 3)亞洲橙王
(7)得令先鋒
第4場 9)紅孖寶
(8)發達心聲
第5場 12)精彩生輝
(2)常山鳳寶
第6場 3)紅皮柚
(7)精算大師
第7場 8)精算拍檔
(3)八運寶
第8場 6)陽明寶寶
(10)紅跑車

作者: 馬仔仔 時間: 24-6-2009 11:54 AM

作者: paulcheung88 時間: 24-6-2009 12:22 PM

Dane兄, I found your pace chart from the website correspond swtih Speed Power column of HKJC. I told brothers before in another post that most of the estimates are misleading. Don't rely on it. Cross-check mine in another post. Anyway, thank you for your information.

作者: coffee 時間: 24-6-2009 12:27 PM

引用:

原帖由 paulcheung88 於 23-6-2009 11:56 PM 發表
Tears and joy brings me to the present state. I am a race-goer for more than 30 years and get myself prepared for every method that I can make money on horse racing.

same same to me... no pain no gain

作者: coffee 時間: 24-6-2009 12:28 PM

引用:

原帖由 chaonima 於 24-6-2009 11:47 AM 發表
賽日密馬的山埃博士你老母封我IP可以不去，你那网址一点价值都没有，还不如船长这个网站！

投注方法：
此斋W很少连着三场都不中一场的， ...

haha... easy easy brother...

作者: dane 時間: 24-6-2009 12:32 PM

引用:

原帖由 paulcheung88 於 24-6-2009 12:22 PM 發表
Dane兄, I found your pace chart from the website correspond swtih Speed Power column of HKJC. I told brothers before in another post that most of the estimates are misleading. Don't rely on it. Cross- ...

11, 8, 2, 3, 4, 6, 12, 1, 5, 7, 10

一堆數字睇唔明

作者: paulcheung88 時間: 24-6-2009 02:43 PM 標題: 今晚國中之星

今晚國中之星今晨加操:24/06/2009 踱步沙田內圈內圈快踱一圈蔡明紹 , 有沒有brother
知道是好兆頭或不好兆頭, 正常而論, 應正面, 我貼士第二選,原因last 400M比較弱,但是檔位好, 可離補小小last 400M速度

作者: paulcheung88 時間: 25-6-2009 11:19 AM 標題: 陽明寶寶不中檢討

排位影響賽果有多大
Recently, I discovered the draw in any races in Shatin and Happy Valley may affect the chance to win. Statistics elsewhere disclosed that for every 1M apart, a horse will run
1.8M more in 1000M race, 3M in1200M -1400M races and 5.8M in 1800 race. For example,
1200M race, the draw of a horse is changed from 1st to 11th, it may run 10x5.8M distance
more i.e.191.4 ft. Assuming the length of a average horse is 6', it means that it will lose
31.9 horse lengths, meaning around 5.4 second slower. But it is not realistic and I think
the assumption is  based on a horse all along running his lane of 11th draw, like an
athlete competing his 100M race. He has to keep his lane all the way.

Hence, the above finding is not ideal and misleading. Take an example of the last race last night, 國中之星beats down 陽明寶寶 is due to her better draw from his last draw 11th to 3rd whereas陽明寶寶 only benefits from his last draw  4th to 1st. Of course my system tells me that without taking into account the condition of the draw, I rate and estimate 陽明寶寶 coming first and 國中之星 coming thrid. Now,國中之星 wins.  The reason perhaps, among
others is due to her much better draw. She benefits from 8 horse gates and 陽明寶寶  only
benefits from 3 horse gates.

Are there any brothers have done any research on this area?  Please comment.

作者: 山埃博士 時間: 25-6-2009 11:47 AM

引用:

原帖由 paulcheung88 於 25-6-2009 11:19 AM 發表
排位影響賽果有多大
Recently, I discovered the draw in any races in Shatin and Happy Valley may affect the chance to win. Statistics elsewhere disclosed that for every 1M apart, a horse will run
1.8 ...

請移玉步！

http://www.hrc.hk/viewthread.php?tid=27138&page=1&extra=page%3D1#pid199241

作者: 山埃博士 時間: 25-6-2009 11:56 AM

引用:

原帖由 paulcheung88 於 25-6-2009 11:19 AM 發表
排位影響賽果有多大
Recently, I discovered the draw in any races in Shatin and Happy Valley may affect the chance to win. Statistics elsewhere disclosed that for every 1M apart, a horse will run
1.8 ...

山埃有檔位加權，結果得出國中之星排第一，陽明排第二

第 8 場 1650米第二班 (100-080 分) 跑馬地草地 - A 賽道
8 國中之星
6 陽明寶寶

作者: paulcheung88 時間: 25-6-2009 12:15 PM

博士兄,山埃兄link 我進入不到, 奈何? 可有方法進入? 非常有興趣, 請賜教
http://www.hrc.hk/viewthread.php ... =page%3D1#pid199241

作者: paulcheung88 時間: 25-6-2009 12:21 PM

博士兄, 閱讀權限30 剛改, 可以進入那link, 謝謝,拜讀后,寫感想

作者: 山埃博士 時間: 25-6-2009 12:22 PM

已加分成30權限！

作者: paulcheung88 時間: 25-6-2009 03:38 PM 標題: 排位影響賽果有多大

From 山埃兄's analysis, it does not tell us how much faster/slower if a horse's draw
is worse than the last time. It cannot quantify the time difference. It only proves that
the finishing time of a horse with a draw outside the fence will run slower. In fact, it
is a common sense. I want to ask brothers if they can providie some more accurate estimate of the time difference of a horse with a draw only one horse gate difference. I mean how much time is affected by having a draw say from 1st draw last time in the same distance compared with a draw say from 11th draw this time in the same distance?

From my experience,  the 1st sectional time does matter. To my surprise, the time of
a horse with a worse draw mostly finishes faster than a better draw by  about 0.045 per horse gate. Taking the example of Race 611 and 655, 玩具神話 finishes
the 1st section 0.45 faster in Race 655 when she has a draw 11th compared with his
excellent draw 1st in Race 611. As a result,she wins in Race 611 but fails in Race 655.
Even though both races are fast run races, the finishing time of her 1st section in Race 611 is 28.57 compared with that  27.6 in Race 655, 0.45 time difference (faster) , she can be complained that she follows too closely  the horses competing in the front and ends up losing enough strength to compete in her last 400M. Or we can say 馬偉昌 not clever enough to have the horse to stay near the fence and finds the cover like what he does in Race 611. He should know 玩具神話is not a springer which can't lead the front and can't control the pace. As a result,  she competes in three/four horse position from the fence and with no cover, wasting strength.  So, she lost the race.  Her finishing time
of Race 611 and 655 are 1.40 and 1.41.5, 1.5 slower. But I don't think it is reasonable to say each horse gate difference should account for 0.15 (1.5 divided by 10) time dfference.  Am I right?

My question is

作者: paulcheung88 時間: 25-6-2009 03:59 PM

My qestion is which brother has done a good research on this area. We all want
to increase the hitting of our target horses. Thanks in advance.

作者: dane 時間: 25-6-2009 03:59 PM

引用:

原帖由 paulcheung88 於 25-6-2009 03:38 PM 發表
From 山埃兄's analysis, it does not tell us how much faster/slower if a horse's draw
is worse than the last time. It cannot quantify the time difference. It only proves that
the finishing time of a ...

太難唔識計

同一匹馬, 相同路程檔位, 都可能跑不出一樣時間, 時間或許有偏差, 時間偏差有多少, 又取決於馬匹狀態, 又如同場步速不同, 跑出時間也會不同, 條數太難計

將個波交俾博士先, 麻煩博士深入研究

作者: paulcheung88 時間: 25-6-2009 04:05 PM

I 100% support your suggestion!

作者: rucrazy 時間: 25-6-2009 05:13 PM

引用:

原帖由 paulcheung88 於 25-6-2009 03:38 PM 發表
From 山埃兄's analysis, it does not tell us how much faster/slower if a horse's draw
is worse than the last time. It cannot quantify the time difference. It only proves that
the finishing time of a ...

I have a research about the relationship of a draw and horse.
its simply tell a horse in this draw is good for its running method or is it match his best
running method with this draw. if u need more example. tell me the racing day, and see I can post
the record of dat day about my report.

here is the record I have in last racing nite.

[attach]19615[/attach]

my computer program will gave marks (1-5) to each horse and I only list out the 5 marks and 4 marks only.

and for sure the draw advantage is only one of a factor we need to concern, relay on just one factor to pick horse to bet
is reli dangerous.

[ 本帖最後由 rucrazy 於 25-6-2009 05:17 PM 編輯 ]

作者: paulcheung88 時間: 25-6-2009 07:23 PM

Thanks for your information.  For Race  1, there are 5 horses rated 5.  But only 1 horse
comes first eventually.  I am sorry to say that the system is not effective and needs
improvement.  I think the best way  to quantify the time difference of a target horse is to compare two races  of a horse's best  peformance in the same distance(same racing
season) based on the actual draws first  (covering the current race). As the old race's information is known  and then we can calculate the possible time difference when the draw differs this time from the compared race, in this way, we will have a better effect.
With the current  performance estimated after adjusting the time differnce on the account of the draw differnce, we then compare it with his opponents  in the current race after the calculations as discussed aforesaid.  Then we have an idea/rating and know if the target horse is worthwhile to bet or not.  Any comment?

作者: 贏馬人 時間: 25-6-2009 08:39 PM

一只貼欄賺步速的馬，未段時間自締慢於23.0的話，則此馬的真正實力沒有盡顯出來，有極大可能是賺形勢贏的馬，因上次的步速1.15.5屬超快步速，陽明寶寶在貼欄四個馬位後跟隨，則屬賺步速賺貼欄後上贏的馬。今次要加12磅之多，需然再排一檔。也非實力超的馬。結論就是同一時間完成賽事，但國中之星是蝕步速兼蝕疊位二疊望空，陽明寶寶是賺步速兼賺貼欄。所以今次國中之星反先陽明寶寶一點也不出奇。假如上場是慢步速未段偏快的話，則陽寶寶是蝕步速後上贏馬，國中之星是賺步速跟前力弱，則可相反而論。在1.15.5快步速全程二疊望空之下，一般任何馬都會回唔到氣，未段能不大敗負三馬位內已算是出色表演。假如是全程三疊望空的馬此步速負六七個馬位也算是超水準表演，下次出也一定要跟。

[ 本帖最後由贏馬人於 25-6-2009 08:52 PM 編輯 ]

作者: paulcheung88 時間: 25-6-2009 10:24 PM

謝謝分析賜教,贏馬兄真高手, 佩服

歡迎光臨賽日密馬 (http://www.hrc.hk/)