送一只《计得精彩》的缩注模型给大家  ，  描述： 概率统计+精算学的下注模型，和大家分享一下；

謝謝！但不明白怎樣用。

其实是用起来很简单，每场赛马按照四个属相选择出最多8匹马，包括：必胜   必位置   有机会   冷选，这样就构成了投注的一个最稳固的基础，必胜、比位置是这一单的基础，有机会马是这一单的保险，冷选是这一单的飞机，之后要确定一下自己对这一场选马的  信心指数  由此就决定了此场投注 缩注的原则，就可以利用模型减少每一单的投入了

例如：
第一关：必胜：1-3  必位置：2-5  有机会：4-11   冷选：12     信心指数：75%
第二关：必胜：5-6  必位置：1    有机会：3-7    冷选：11     信心指数：75%
第三关：必胜：2-5  必位置：3-9  有机会：4-11   冷选：7-8    信心指数：75%

那么我们就可以用模型了：
第一注：  第一关：1-3   第二关：5-6   第三关：2-5            8注
第二注：  第一关：1-3   第二关：5-6   第三关：4-11-7-8-3-9   24注
第三注：  第一关：1-3   第二关：1-3-7-11  第三关：2-5        16注
第四住：  第一关：2-5-4-11-12  第二关：5-6   第三关：2-5     20注
以上就是投注的策略，我们规避了不必要的投注，减少了热门跑出后蚀水的比例，同时确保高中奖几率，共投注68注   比直接购买复式的7*7*8=392减少了323注，也就是节省了82%的投注

要買每關七八隻，最好遠離馬場，過大海買大細好過！
规避了不必要的投注

先睇睇網友轉貼，真正得益邊種多？

paulcheung88

Maxims of Pittsburgh Phil

Brothers, the below is the extract from "Racing Maxims and Methods of Pittsburgh Phil," by Edward W. Cole.  Thought the author does not write about HK horse racing, yet it is still good to read it. Hope in the coming 2012, brothers can get some inspiration from the contents.



Maxims of Pittsburgh Phil

A good jockey, a good horse, a good bet.
A poor jockey, a good horse, a moderate bet.
A good horse, a moderate jockey, a moderate bet.
（好馬配好騎師，最佳投注選擇；
（好馬配差騎師，或者好馬配中等騎師，只屬中等選擇）

A man who plays the races successfully must have opinions of his own and the strength to stick to them no matter what he hears.
（成功的投注者永遠要有自己一套見解，無論從外間聽到任何消息亦有能力堅持自己信念，不能動搖）

Successful handicappers know every detail in regard to the horses upon which they are intending to place their money.
（成功的投注者務必對自己投注的馬匹有充分認識）

The minute that a man loses his balance on the race track he is like a horse that is trying to run away.
（馬場之內，一位失去平衡的投注者〔按：「平衡」意指投注紀律〕，跟一匹脫彊快馬毫無分別）

A man cannot divide his attention at the track between horses and women.
（馬場之內，馬匹與美色之間，投注者絕不能將其注意力分散）

All consistently successful players of horses are men of temperate habits in life.
（成功的投注者，本身生活習慣亦當檢點）

The racing man should arise in the morning cool and clear headed and should then take up the problem of the day.
（好馬之仕，每朝起來應當保持冷靜頭腦及清晰思維，方再面對新一天的難題）

Some horses will run good races over certain tracks, while in the same company under similar conditions on other tracks they will run very disappointingly. Study the likes and dislikes of a horse in regard to tracks.
（留意馬匹對某一種馬場或跑道的喜惡情況）

If there are two or three very fast horses in a race one or two of them will quit before the end of the journey. Hence look out for your intelligent jockey.
（一場賽事裡面若同時出現兩三匹快馬，中間一兩匹肯定不能力拚到底；此時此刻，就要留心哪一位鞍上人較有頭腦）

Many killings are attempted but few are accomplished.
（短時間內大幅投注，巨額過關，每日都有很多；最後成功的卻極少）

In handicaps the top weights are at a disadvantage always unless they are very high class horses.
（投注讓賽，頂磅馬匹永遠都會處於最不利位置 – 除非此等馬匹實力的確極之超班）

There are few trainers who can send a horse to the post the first time out in perfect condition.
（只有極少數練馬師能夠將初出馬匹操至最高狀態出賽）

One race for a horse is equal to two or three private trials.
（馬匹出賽一次，功效相等於兩三課快試）

Horses are the same as human beings where condition is the test of superiority.
（無論人或馬，狀態就是實力的最佳驗証）

Winners repeat frequently while the defeated are apt to be defeated almost continuously.
（跑道上成王敗寇，同一定律恆久不變）

The majority of horses will go further over the turf than they will over the dirt course. Mud runners are usually good on the turf.
（大部入馬匹跑草地的壽命會比泥地長；泥地專才跑草通常都會有好表現）

Time enters into the argument under certain conditions but if depended entirely for a deduction it will be found wanting.
（投注技巧上，「時間因素」只會在部份情況下加入考慮方有意義）

The ability to tell whether a horse is at its best before a race is acquired only after years of the closest kind of study.
（觀馬技巧，何以分別賽前狀態之好壞，是需要時間及經驗）

Special knowledge is not a talent. A man must acquire it by hard work.
（心得非天份；成功需苦幹）

A horse that frets is a very dangerous betting proposition.
（馬匹賽前情緒波動，絕對不宜作投注選擇）

The majority of the riders and horses are game and will fight for victory no matter where they are placed.
（賽事中途，無論走位前後分別，馬匹及騎師應當會全力以赴，爭取勝利）

Some jockeys excel on heavy tracks.
（部份騎師處理軟爛場地會有突出能力或技術）

A good mud rider will frequently bring a bad horse home.
（擅軟爛場地騎師，往往會出其不意，憑一匹實力較差坐騎掄元）

You cannot be a successful horse player if you are going to get the worst of the price all the time.
（不懂看賠率，常以最差值搏率下注，永遠不能當成功投注者）

The basis of all speculation is the amount of profit to be obtained on an investment.
（所有投機的基本定律只著重一點：一項投資，最後究竟得到多少回報）

It is not always the heaviest commission that is collected. The weight of the commission does not make a horse win. A poor man's horse and his $10 speak as loudly as a $10,000 commission from a millionaire. It is the horse that must be considered.
（一位普羅馬迷下注十元，跟一位大富翁下注一萬元落同一匹馬身上而最後跑出，喜悅聲音同等響亮；贏錢多與少不重要，選馬眼光方為最重要．）

The clocker is something like the scout in the army.
（計時員的重要性，跟軍隊內的軍長無大分別）

Honest horses, ridden by honest boys, are sometimes beaten by honest trainers. Instructions are given to the riders which mean sure defeat when intended to be the best.
（一場馬，縱使馬有，人有，但往往就被練馬師自以為最好的策騎指示拖垮）
〔按：賽馬可謂世界語言．驃叔以前所主張，馬定必要「活騎」，不能「死騎」，英雄所見，果真略同！〕

The resistance of the wind is very great in a horse race and it is a correspondingly great when acting as a propeller. Wind and atmosphere have considerable effect on horses that are troubled in their respiratory organs.
（風向風速的影響，在一場賽事之內不容忽視；尤其當一匹馬是在前領位置，或者一位馬長期有呼吸道毛病的時候）

Class in a horse is the ability possessed by it to carry its stipulated stake weight, take the track and go the distance that nature intended that it should go,
（一匹馬的級數，在乎其應付不同馬場，路程，跑道狀況及負磅皆可取勝的能力）

I figure that two-year-olds can give considerably more weight away to horses in their class, than can horses in the older division excepting in isolated areas.
（一匹兩歲馬跟同組別對手的讓磅能力，往往比一匹年長馬更高）

There is enough natural inconsistency in horse racing without having it forced upon the public by unscrupulous men, yet there is not one-tenth of one per cent, as much crookedness on the turf as it is given credit for.
（馬場之內難免出現不良份子，只有小心為上）

A horse that is not contented in his stable cannot take on flesh and be happy.
（馬匹若在馬房內生活不舒適，絕對不會有健康狀態及良好情緒）

Every horse I ever owned improved after I had him long enough to study his disposition.
（要做馬主養一匹馬，事前務必要對其長相身型有充分了解認識）

A horse expects to race if he is a thoroughbred, just the same as a game chicken is anxious to fight.
（一匹純種馬的天賦本能，就是兢賽）

When you feel yourself getting out of form then take a rest and freshen up.
（投注者「持久作戰」一段長時間，若覺自己分析水平有所下滑，最好方法是脫離一段短時間，稍事休息之後方向投入觀馬行列）
〔按：這亦是Edward W. Cole 後來所指出，
投注者 ”Brain Sour” 跟馬匹 “Track Sour”  的重點比喻〕

What is frequently right in form is wrong in condition. If a horse is not in good condition he might as well be in the stable.
（近績好未必一定等於狀態好；狀態差，操練欠佳的馬匹，還是留守馬房較可取，否則又何來跑得好）

Look for improvement of mares in the fall of the year. They train better and more consistent.
（季尾時節，留意部份雌馬表現；每到入秋，此等賽駒通常有較穩定狀態，操練亦較理想）

There are mud riders as well as mud runners in the racing world.
（賽馬世界內，有擅跑泥地的馬匹，亦有有擅攻泥地的騎手）

A jockey should not be overloaded with instructions.
（騎師絕對不能被過量策騎指示左右，始終要講求臨場發揮）

It is not bad speculation to pick out two or three sure looking bets and parlay a small amount.
（某類場合，遇著有兩三匹心水馬，「互穿」此策略每每高於分開投注）

Cut your bets when in a losing streak and increase them when running in a spasm of good luck.
（賭博始終講求福至心靈：運氣到時，稍為加碼，不過份總未嘗不可；欠運時則緊記要忍手，切忌窮追猛賭）

Double your wagers when you have the bookmakers' money in hand.
（當莊家注碼在你手上的時候，才是你可以將注碼加倍的時侯）

Condition has more to do with a horse winning or losing a race than the weight it carries.
（一匹賽駒之勝與敗，在乎於其出賽時狀態高於其負磅）

A horse in poor condition cannot beat one of his own class.
（一匹狀態差的馬匹，絕對不能擊敗其同級對手）

A high class horse could not win a race with a feather on his back if he is not in condition.
（莫適一匹馬級數實力有幾高，只要不在狀態，背負一根羽毛亦不能勝出）

Watch all the horses racing closely. You may see something that will be of benefit later on.
（每一場賽事，每一匹馬都要留意其走勢表現，今天所發現，他日極可能有參考作用）

It is well to play horses that are in winning form. A horse in winning condition generally repeats or runs into the money.
（總括而言，投注有狀態馬匹永遠為上算；近況良好的賽駒，一般皆能重複其接近表現）

Different tracks cause decided changes in form frequently. Study horses' whims and fancies for certain tracks and you will see a good "lay" or a good "play." But a high class horse will do his best on any track.
（留意每一匹馬對各種場地變化的偏好；但一匹好馬始終在任何場地環境都會有表現）

The less one thinks of crookedness and trickery in racing the more successful will be his handicapping.
（跑道上，馬場內，少歪念，多成就）

Look for defect in your own calculating rather than cheating of others.
Learn to finance your money to advantage.
（投注策略上有失誤，若永遠抱怨他人，何不先檢討自己；反正更重要，更著眼點，是如何更有效運用自己的投注資金）

Know when to put a good bet down and when not to.
（就算有必勝選擇，亦要知道幾時可取，幾時不可取）

From "Racing Maxims and Methods of Pittsburgh Phil," by Edward W. Cole

受益良多，感谢无私分享。

The Selection Process
One question I am often asked is "How do you Select Your Bets?"
Well obviously not all bets are the same and some require far more preparation than others.

The identification of a possible bet starts at Noon the day before. I
will download the cards, print them off and have them to hand. At this
stage there will be no betting forecasts as that just muddys the water and steers you in directions that you should not go.
I immediately rule out the races that I know its not profitable to bet in or that don't suit my expertise or style of work. Usually these are 30 runner sprint handicaps, nurserys, big field maidens with many unraced horses or small field tactical races that are not likely to be truly run races. I usually end up with about 6-8 potential races to play in, although there may be others that are identified by particular horses I have noted in running previously which are due to
race that day .
The next step is to add my Speed Ratings to each race and identify Class issues and weak over rated horses that are going to be
over bet by the public .
Once I get my shortlist of races, which is usually about 4-5 handicaps, with a couple of maidens and conditions races I can get to work.
My next task is to get some sort of historical perspective to see if there is an edge. I am particularly interested in sorting out "blocks" of horses that can't win the race . They can be identified through historical trends, quite often age statistics, weight statistics etc. One example was the Stewards Cup where you can safely rule out every 3 year old that runs in the race as a very safe guide. I always look at previous years results and the types of horses that are needed to win a particular race.
There is significant emphasis placed on my own unique Trainer Research.
I am not interested at all yet at the most likely winner of the race at all. I want to be able to reduce a 12 runner race to 1 or 2 possibilities , or a 16 runner field to about 3 possible winners and history can help immensely with that task.
Once I have done that I always ring the racecourses for going updates, weather forecasts and assess what the likely ground might be. That in itself helps enormously to rule out many of the field .
I am not interested in betting in races where I don't know what horses are capable of beating me . I want to make sure that my final selection is protected from horses that I can't rate, or whom could improve, or whom are able to win on old form . I don't want the thrills of a race, I want to feel safe and comfortable that my bets are racing with limited risk .
At this stage, usually the night before the race I will have started my
message and generally add things I find when I study as I go along. I
have one eye on making the next days message as detailed and informative as possible without compromising the study. I am now down to only hand full of horses that can win the races I look at, and I have a mental tissue in my head .
My next step is to cross check every horse I see with information about them, press clippings, notes I have made about their
previous races, comments from their connections, previous analysis I have researched about them which I save etc etc. This often proves very helpfull. I then run a few more statistics and cross check a few things and test ideas out and see if they hold water .
I have now got a very good idea of the Best Bets the next day and I spend the next few hours with the form book and the best possible resource, the Video where I have a large collection of races going back seasons that I play to look at to help get a picture of whether the horse is capable of doing what he or she are being asked to do . The vIdeo analysis is the most important part as it gives you great confidence .
I check prices at various online bookmakers, make a few phone calls and speak to a few people to cross check certain horses . It pays to talk to other judges as it is a solitary lonely experience and you can get caught up in the study, get stale and miss things. I now have a very good idea of whether I will be recommending a bet or not the next day
Finishing touches are put on my message and then the final thing happens....sleep! . I never make a final decision till I've slept on it and gained a fresh perspective in the morning.
Once that final test has been passed and I am confident that my bet isn't going to collapse in the market or be affected by changing weather conditions, non runners etc then I can send my message.
Then it starts all over again for the following days business .

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