下季馬找個賽前預計步速快慢的專家

這裏有無賽前第場步速評估專家，每次跑馬能將每場賽事步速是快是慢是中等做準確的預計.這對選馬有極大幫助。

應該沒有

how do you know?

講步速評估專家，非Paulcheung88兄莫屬！大家鼓勵吓，相信paul兄不吝幫忙！
http://www.hrc.hk/viewthread.php?tid=27251&extra=page%3D2

[ 本帖最後由 山埃博士 於 31-7-2009 06:46 PM 編輯 ]

除非好大膽量,否則都好難有人敢回覆自稱步速專家
尤其密馬版主都手起刀落,好容易扣晒d分

我諗可以先討論一下大家點樣預計賽事步速,
我自己就一時時會考慮步速,
某類場合我會特別留意步速影響,
1, 有前速特快放頭馬,如風火神駒
2, 快活谷賽事放頭馬二匹或以上排外檔

快馬排外檔好多時都不搶放都有，反而內檔中置馬沒有換到遮檔被逼放頭都有，好難估計步速。最記喜定來本來是想留住跑的，但早段沒有馬切入變自已上口之下，難以穩定走勢下放頭死光，連累外檔馬走二三疊望空下輸，不知是否故意想輸馬，好味皇也是排一檔，本來是應該有遮檔跑的馬，早段出閘快上了口下逛放輸，下次就轉馬房了。不是練師的事定騎師韁手力不夠讓其上了口勁。慢步速下排外檔的快馬也會留後跑都有，像又贏晒跑谷草1650排11檔，苗禮德賽後話怕只馬找不到遮檔望空會輸，叫騎師留包尾跑，結果當然是輸啊。遇慢步速放頭馬改留後明是找死。最難估計騎練心中的想法。

Some people said that we can hit the target horse as high as 75% if we can predict
correctly the pace of a race. I have some experience in this field. My own system can tell
quite accurately the pace of  a coming race. The concept is that we have to sort out the past
best performance of the same distance done by all participating horses and study the pace they  did in that race. Capture the data of the pace of all horses in that race by section and compare it with the standard sectional time ( which you have to do it on your own by using
the HKJC Club's standard time as a yardstick.) If there are more than 4 horses  having the sectional speed faster than the standard by a few lines and competing in the first section (in the front), the pace of the coming race could  be most probably fast. If there are 3 horses or below having the sectional time faster than the standard , the coming race could be
slow.  Likewise, if there is no horse found, the coming race could be normal.

Sorry, I make a correction.  If there are 3 horses or below having the sectional faster than
the standard, the coming race could be good-to-fast (normal).  If there is no horse having
the sectional time faster than the standard, the coming race could be slow.

反而我做O左個三年統計，得出個結論係步速未能反映事實，例如慢步速未必利放，快步速未必利追，反而應該計算每匹馬慣常走位分佈，之後分析那匹有利，我不知道我以下解釋你地明唔明，因為我不太懂怎解釋

例 A (以下數字為一場馬之各駒慣性走位)
1,3,4,4,5,6,6,7,8,10,10,11,11,12
這場馬會利放頭

例 B
1,1,2,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10
這場馬會利後追

例 C
3,3,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11
這場利後追

例 C
4,4,4,5,5,6,7,8,9,10....
這場也是利後追(但會慢步速)

I can explain the situation why sometimes the golden rules cannot apply, ie. a springer
taking an advantage of a fast pace run and a stayer taking an advantage of a slow run.  The  reason is that sometimes, we have an anti-trend horse which is a springer and finally wins a fast run race. The good example is 特寶樂 which participated in the race 665 on 3/6/09. Though the run is fast and特寶樂 is a springer. In the race, all along she leads and wins the race. Though the last 400M speed is slow, 24.54 compared the best 400M speed 22.56 in Class 3 Happy Valley 1650M, she still gives the finishing time 1.40.1 only 10 lines below the fastest finishing time in Class 3 Happy Valley 1650M. So, the lesson is that 特寶樂 is a super horse because she shows an extraordinary strength that she can finish the race courageously in a poor situation. Though you may not be able to choose her in race 655 as a winner, you still learn a lesson that she is super and you should mark it down for future reference. One day, you will be awarded.  

Likewise, there is another kind of anti-trend horse which wins a race in a slow run race
whereas she is a stayer.  The good example is 勇猛神駒 which participated in race 628
on 21/5/09. The race is a slow run. However she wins the race with her last best speed
22.85 which is only 0.29 slower the best 400M speed in Class 3, Happy Valley, 1650M.
Though it is a slow run, her finishing time 1.40.6 is not bad, 10 lines above the standard
time 1.40.7.  The lesson we learn here is that  勇猛神駒  is also a super horse. You need
pay her your attention from time to time.

After all, horse racing is a fun.  It is full of unexpected results. On a average, our golden rule
is true 慢步速利放，快步速利追 because a horse is an animal which only has a full
speed for 400M.